Editor's Note:
As the dust settles from the US election, former president Donald Trump makes his comeback. Many are predicting where China-US relations are headed. Today, a rising China is injecting stability into the bilateral relationship with its strength, strategic coherence, and a strong sense of responsibility. In this context, what can we expect from future interactions between China and the US? How can we explore building stable US-China relations? In the latest episode of Global Times' Global Minds Roundtable (GT) presided over by reporter Li Aixin, Zhou Mi (Zhou), a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Shen Yi (Shen), a professor at the School of International Relations and Public Affairs of Fudan University, and Anthony Moretti (Moretti), associate professor at the Department of Communication and Organizational Leadership at Robert Morris University, shared their views.
GT: What do you think lies ahead for China-US relations over the next four years?
Zhou: When we talk about bilateral relations, our goal should be to avoid worsening tensions between the two economies. Both of the two economies are facing many challenges. And I have to say that the situation in the US today is not as good as it was when Trump left the White House four years ago. Inflation has become a major issue affecting people's lives.
China is also facing challenges, including climate change. How can we transition from traditional energy sources to a new-energy era? We are dealing with numerous problems and may encounter even more challenges in the next four years. Personally, I believe it would be both possible and positive if we could work together to solve these problems, although there may be some fluctuations in policies along the way.
Moretti: I agree that one of the biggest concerns the US must consider, regardless of its approach to China, is the struggling economic situation at home. Inflation has remained persistent, and there is particular concern among people in their 20s and 30s. They have a legitimate worry about whether they will be able to achieve what is often referred to in the US as the "American Dream" - the ability to own a home, have children, and lead a life that isn't just about living paycheck to paycheck, but one where they feel they are building stability and a sense of community.
Looking at the bilateral relationship, if this administration [the upcoming administration] remains committed to tariffs, as it often discussed during the campaign, it will be a tough road ahead. What I don't think this administration wants to hear, or simply refuses to admit, is that tariffs actually harm the US economy more than they hurt China or any other country targeted by tariffs.
Shen: Generally speaking, we can keep a cautiously optimistic attitude toward China-US relations. Great power relationships are primarily based on power structures. While the leaders' personal characteristics, capacities, and the policies of their teams may have some short-term impact, these factors cannot fundamentally challenge or change the power structures between the two great powers.
China-US relations are a mutually constructed bilateral relationship, meaning both China and the US have the capacity to shape, form, and ensure the development of these ties today. China's power and capacities have grown significantly.
At the recent Airshow China in Zhuhai, South China's Guangdong Province, China demonstrates its rising power and growing capabilities, based on its defensive national security strategies.
No matter what future US president thinks, who he hires, or what he does, China's capability in shaping ties with the US is increasing. China is providing strategic stability to this bilateral relationship. Even though the next four years may bring rising uncertainties from the US, I believe China's top leadership will have enough confidence, power, and capabilities to ensure that bilateral relations can develop on a healthier and more stable track. While there may be occasional challenges, and sometimes unexpected uncertainties or surprises, generally, we can handle them.
GT: The Chinese side has reiterated its hope that the two sides will, in the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, find the right way to get along with each other. What message do you think China has been sending?
Moretti: I am a big believer in the saying that "an open hand beats a closed fist." An open hand suggests friendship, optimism, and the idea that there are opportunities for both sides to benefit, not just one. What we've seen from China is a very clear message of an open hand. It's saying, let's find ways to cooperate; let's identify areas where we can compromise a little, if necessary; but let's not view this situation in terms of win-lose dynamics. This is one of the frustrations I have as an American - too much of the discourse over the past eight years has been about China-US relations being framed as "unless the Americans win and the Chinese lose," it's bad policy.
You can't conduct international relations with such simplistic thinking. Everything is far more complex than that. So, my hope is that the open hand extended by the Chinese side will be met with an equally open hand by the soon-to-be US president, with optimism.
Shen: It is clear that our policy, strategies, and guiding principles toward the US and in managing China-US relations, are coherent, and we will not change our policies or strategies simply because the US has a new president.
The Chinese side has reiterated its three new principles guiding China-US ties. That is mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.
Mutual respect means we have no interest in intervening in US domestic politics. We hope the US can respect us, just as we respect them. Second, peaceful coexistence. We do not want war with the US. However, we will not be intimidated by any potential threats or use of force. Let's peacefully coexist. But on issues like the Taiwan question, if the US crosses red lines, it should be concerned about potential countermoves from the Chinese side.
Regarding win-win cooperation, one of the best examples is Elon Musk and Tesla's factory in Shanghai. It wasn't until Musk established the factory and production lines in Shanghai that Tesla's electric vehicles became a real industry, helping him gain perhaps the greatest market share and profits in the global car industry. This is the best example of how win-win cooperation can bring benefits to both China and the US.
GT: The US strategy of containing China has been going on and escalating for several years, particularly in the trade and high-tech sector. What impact has this strategy had on the US itself?
Zhou: From my observation over the past few years, tariffs have gradually reduced the options available to US consumers. They now have to pay more to buy products from China. If they seek alternatives from other countries, they may face even higher costs and uncertainty about quality. This is definitely not a good situation for US consumers.
In high-tech sectors, US companies remain strong in innovation, but they have to invest more money to commercialize the innovation. They expect better access to markets, not only in the US, but also in other regions, with China being a key potential market. However, they have suffered due to limited market opportunities. On the other hand, the Chinese government has opened its market significantly in recent years. We have reduced the negative list for foreign direct investment and welcomed investments from other countries, including the US.
However, some US companies are afraid of sanctions set by the US government, which hinders their ability to expand in the Chinese market and sustain development in sectors like new-energy vehicles.
Moretti: You try to contain China, and you end up containing yourself. The data are pretty clear: The longer and more significant the tariffs, the more likely it is that unemployment will rise in the US. You're also likely to see a decline in the country's overall GDP. No president would want that hanging around their neck. No president wants to hear or be told that, under their watch, unemployment increased and GDP declined. And that's an undeniable fact: The longer you keep the tariffs in place and the more you choose to increase them, the more you end up hurting the US economy.
More and more American people express an interest in electric vehicles, yet the options available in the US are, by and large, quite expensive. The cars from BYD, for example, if they were in the US market, would allow US consumers to buy a reliable, safe electric vehicle for far less than the market price for some of the American brands. But the absence of creative thinking, the lack of optimism, and the idea that, if it's from China, it's a danger - these chronic and corrosive ideas prevent common sense from taking over.
Shen: The tariffs imposed on Chinese exports are borne by US importers, not China. Ultimately, the burden falls on consumers in the American market, most of whom are workers or blue-collar individuals - the very ones US politicians claimed would benefit from the tariffs. In reality, this becomes a form of consumer tax. This is a basic economic principle.
The most ironic part is that some US policymakers have forgotten the history of US trade. During the period when the US was rising, its main concern and demand were for free trade, aiming to eliminate tariffs. In the 1950s, when the US held overwhelming global advantages, it championed free trade, which eventually led to the establishment of the WTO and the goal of zero tariffs. A powerful US, confident in its ability to outcompete any nation in a free market, didn't rely on tariffs but on advanced technologies and production capabilities. If the US returns to using tariffs, it won't make America great again. In fact, such policies suggest that the US no longer possesses the strength it once had.
GT: How should China respond if the trade war and tech war continue?
Zhou: Over the past several years, even though the US administration has imposed many restrictions and tariffs on Chinese products, China has continued on its path of openness. We have continued to reform, open our market, and make our platform available not only to US companies but also to companies from around the world.
China's stance has been firm: We are not trying to stop our development plan just because the US doesn't want us to. Our goal is to become more independent in our development. We do not want to depend too much on other countries or rely on their "charity." The Chinese government has proposed that the Chinese modernization is in the process. Achieving this goal is not solely dependent on foreign trade; we must explore better ways for Chinese companies and the Chinese market to develop sustainably. This is an important issue for us to discuss, along with potential cooperation or even competition with the US side.
GT: Against the background, what are the most common views on China that you have heard from American scholars, observers and common people?
Zhou: I think it's natural that many US citizens have been influenced by the media in recent years. There's been a growing sentiment that China is a giant, often portrayed like the dragon in Western culture, which is seen as frightening and dangerous. However, there are still some scholars in the US who understand the reasons behind China's rise.
They are trying to improve the understanding of the American public about China. They also offer valuable insights on how China can improve its economic performance and address its challenges in a better way. However, they are still not involved in the decision-making process. I believe it's detrimental if the two countries remain separated for too long, with each side harboring misconceptions about the other. It's not beneficial for us to continue imposing barriers to investment and trade, as that will undoubtedly break the market apart.
GT: How can we break this situation?
Moretti: One area where I see a real opportunity is in focusing on current high school and college students in the US, specifically young people between the ages of roughly 14 to 22. This age group has an insatiable curiosity. I've seen reports on Chinese news websites about high school or college students who have gone to China or are still there. When you look at the smiles on their faces and the warmth and hospitality they receive from their Chinese hosts, it's clear that these experiences leave lasting impressions. Many of them talk not just about the pictures they've taken or the memories they've made, but also about how they want to continue the conversations with their peers in China.
That's where I see optimism. This is where we have a long-term opportunity to strengthen our relationship, but it will take sustained commitment. It's a long-term investment that could make things stronger and better between our countries.
When my younger son, who is now 21, was in first grade, he created a piece of art in his art class that simply said, "Imagine tomorrow's world." It still hangs on an office wall here at home.
Imagine what could be done if China and the US both agreed that tariffs are silly and decided to get rid of them. Imagine what tomorrow's possibilities might be, if we look out the window and don't see China as dangerous and threatening, but instead as a friend, and someone with whom we can and should cooperate. Tomorrow's world suddenly seems a lot greener, brighter, and sunnier.
There are real challenges, but also real opportunities. If those opportunities are embraced in a spirit of openness, mutual respect, compromise, and a willingness to roll up our sleeves and get things done, I believe the next four years could be a period in history that people look back on and say, "So much was accomplished." I believe that's possible because the past eight years have not worked. So why continue down a path that clearly leads only to more frustration and negativity? Let's choose a different road - one that could bring many more positive results, a better bilateral relationship between both countries.
Zhou: It's important for us to look at good examples, as they play a crucial role in shaping perceptions.
Take Tesla, for instance. Tesla's success in making electric cars didn't happen just in the US. It came to China and became the first company to fully own a factory in Shanghai. They successfully set up a production process there, which provided valuable experience that could be replicated in other parts of the world.
We can find many such examples, but it's essential that we present them in a positive way, highlighting the benefits and lessons they offer.
It is also very helpful for people to see the facts for themselves and enjoy their journey to China. Both China and the US have strict visa systems, but China has gradually opened up its visa policies and offers visa-free access to many countries. I think it's possible for China and the US to discuss this in the future - whether both sides can have easier access to visit and communicate with each other.
I don't think we should only view the other country through a limited window. There should be more opportunities for personal experience, especially as social media becomes more widespread.
GT: What do you think could be the key in exploring building stable ties with the US?
Shen: The world is changing. China is not a challenge in the traditional sense, nor is it a challenge to the so-called hegemony or the leaders of the international order or system. There is an important distinction here. According to traditional international relations theories, such as power transition theory, rising countries are often seen as challenging the existing international order, while the dominant powers work to preserve the order they have established.
But today, we see the opposite. It is China that is trying to protect and ensure the continuity, stability, and effectiveness of the international order represented by the United Nations, which was established in 1945 after World War II, largely through the efforts of the US. At the same time, it is the US, in its leading position, that is challenging, defaming, and even attempting to destroy the very order it helped create. This is a clear self-contradiction - like the US against the US.
So it's crucial to have a proper strategic perception. Without this understanding, we cannot ensure that the US government will adopt the right policies or strategies to manage China-US relations effectively.